Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (2024)

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A new set of Times/Siena polls, including one with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.

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Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (1)

THE NEW YORK TIMES

THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

SIENA COLLEGE POLL

April 28 to May 9

If the 2024 presidential election

were held today, who would you

vote for if the candidates were

Joe Biden and Donald Trump?

Trump

45%

Biden

47%

Wisconsin

44

47

Pennsylvania

42

49

Arizona

42

49

Michigan

39

49

Georgia

38

50

Nevada

Margin of error

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (2)

THE NEW YORK TIMES

THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER

SIENA COLLEGE POLL

April 28 to May 9

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidateswere Joe Biden and Donald Trump?

Trump

45%

Biden

47%

Wisconsin

44

47

Pennsylvania

42

49

Arizona

42

49

Michigan

39

49

Georgia

38

50

Nevada

Margin of error

By Nate Cohn

Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.

The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.

[You can find the full results of the polls, including the exact questions that were asked, here. You can see answers to common questions about our polling process here.]

The race was closer among likely voters. Mr. Trump led in five states as well, but Mr. Biden edged ahead in Michigan while trailing only narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Mr. Biden won all six of those states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he won everywhere else he did four years ago.

The results were similar in a hypothetical matchup that included minor-party candidates and the independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10 percent of the vote across the six states and drew roughly equally from the two major-party candidates.

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (5)

How support for the candidates differ

between registered and likely voters

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Biden

Difference

Arizona

42%

43%

+1

Georgia

39

41

+2

Michigan

42

47

+5

Nevada

38

38

+1

Pennsylvania

44

45

+1

Wisconsin

47

46

–1

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Trump

Difference

Arizona

49%

49%

+1

Georgia

49

50

+2

Michigan

49

46

–4

Nevada

50

51

+2

Pennsylvania

47

48

+1

Wisconsin

45

47

+2

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (6)

How support for the candidates differ

between registered and likely voters

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Biden

Difference

42%

43%

+1

Arizona

39

41

+2

Georgia

42

47

+5

Michigan

38

38

+1

Nevada

44

45

+1

Pennsylvania

47

46

–1

Wisconsin

Registered

voters

Likely

voters

Trump

Difference

49%

49%

Arizona

+1

49

50

Georgia

+2

49

46

Michigan

–4

50

51

+2

Nevada

47

48

+1

Pennsylvania

45

47

+2

Wisconsin

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (7)

Most Americans think the system

needs to change …

Which comes closest to your view about

the political and economic system in America,

even if none are exactly right?

The system needs ...

... no changes 2%

... to be

torn down

entirely

... major

changes

... minor

changes

14%

55%

27%

Don’t know/

declined to say 2%

… and they think that Donald Trump

would bring more change …

If [this candidate] won the election, do you think

nothing would change, there would be minor

changes to how things work, there would be

major changes to how things work, or he would

tear down the system completely?

Tear down

system

entirely

Nothing

would change

Minor changes

13%

11%

39%

32%

Biden

Major

changes

Don’t know/

declined to say 4%

3%

25%

45%

23%

Trump

4%

… but they are split on whether that

change would be good or bad.

Do you think the changes that [this candidate]

would make would be good for the country

or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

Somewhat

or very good

Somewhat

or very bad

Nothing

would change

24%

15%

23%

32%

Biden

Neither

Don’t know/

declined to say 5%

5%

43%

12%

35%

Trump

4%

Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (8)

Most Americans think the system needs to change …

Which comes closest to your view about the political and economic

system in America, even if none are exactly right?

The system needs ...

... to be

torn down

entirely

... no changes 2%

... major changes

... minor changes

14%

55%

27%

Don’t know/

declined to say 2%

… and they think that Donald Trump would bring more change …

If [this candidate] won the election, do you think nothing would change,

there would be minor changes to how things work, there would be major

changes to how things work, or he would tear down the system completely?

Tear down

system

entirely

Nothing

would change

Minor changes

13%

11%

39%

32%

Biden

Major

changes

Don’t know/

declined to say 4%

25%

45%

23%

Trump

4%

3%

… but they are split on whether that change would be good or bad.

Do you think the changes that [this candidate] would make would be good

for the country or bad for the country, or neither good nor bad?

Somewhat

or very good

Somewhat

or very bad

Nothing

would change

Neither

24%

15%

23%

32%

Biden

Don’t know/

declined to say 5%

43%

12%

35%

Trump

4%

5%

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Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden (2024)

FAQs

What are the key states in the presidential election? ›

A new Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey asking voters from key states who they would vote for in the upcoming presidential election found Trump is leading Biden 48% to 44% across the seven key swing states in play — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Who is the favorite to win the presidency in 2024? ›

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden go back and forth daily as the election-betting favorites in most sportsbooks to win the presidency in 2024. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (+1900) and Robert Kennedy Jr. (+1900) are also in the mix on US President odds boards.

What are the only 2 states to decide electoral votes? ›

The slate winning the most popular votes is the winner. Only two states, Nebraska and Maine, do not follow this winner-take-all method. In those states, electoral votes are proportionally allocated.

Which state has the fewest electoral votes? ›

The District of Columbia and the six least populous states—Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming—have three electors each.

Who is #1 President of all time? ›

Abraham Lincoln has taken the highest ranking in each survey and George Washington, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Theodore Roosevelt have always ranked in the top five while James Buchanan, Andrew Johnson, and Franklin Pierce have been ranked at the bottom of all four surveys.

What are the 5 requirements to be President? ›

The U.S. Constitution states that the president must:
  • Be a natural-born citizen of the United States.
  • Be at least 35 years old.
  • Have been a resident of the United States for 14 years.
Feb 22, 2024

Who is favored to win the presidential election? ›

2024 presidential election betting odds
CandidateOdds to win 2024 US election atImplied probability
Donald Trump-12555.6%
Joe Biden+13043.5%
Michelle Obama+2,0004.8%
Robert Kennedy Jr.+2,5003.8%
7 more rows

What are the key battleground states in the election? ›

Biden managed to defeat Trump in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the 2020 election, while the former president carried North Carolina.

What role do states play in electing the president? ›

The voters in each State choose electors to serve in the Electoral College. The State Executive of each State signs the Certificate of Ascertainment to appoint the electors chosen in the general election. The electors in each State meet to select the President and Vice President of the United States.

How many electoral states are there? ›

Each state gets as many electors as it has members of Congress (House and Senate). Including Washington, D.C.'s three electors, there are currently 538 electors in all. Find out how many electoral votes each state gets.

What is the presidential state? ›

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